The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is in charge of deciding when the United States of America is officially in recession. According to the NBER, a recession is "a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade".
In the United Kingdom, UK, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the Government's GDP figures.
It often takes NBER several months to declare an official recession and that is subject to later revision.
"A recession involves a substantial decline in output and employment," NBER says. "In the past six recessions, industrial production fell by an average of 4.6 per cent and employment by 1.1 per cent. The bureau waits until the data show whether or not a decline is large enough to qualify as a recession before declaring that a turning point in the economy is a true peak marking the onset of a recession."
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Economic Cycle Research Institute, or ECRI, is an independent
forecasting group based in New York publishes a "Weekly Leading Index"
also known as WLI. The WLI and the WLI growth rate are designed
to predict future turning points in the business cycle (recessions and
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