Bob Brinker Fan Club
Home Page
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Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History
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Very Best CD Rates
with FDIC
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Date
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Allocation to Equities
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DJIA
Charts
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S&P500
Charts
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QQQQ
Charts
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Advice Summary
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Aug 14, 1982
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100%
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777
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Recommended
being fully invested on local radio in NY. Had been mildly
bullish on NBR in April. Recommended DCA prior to Aug 14th.
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Aug 21, 1987
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100%
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2,710
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Top of cyclical bull market
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Oct 19, 1987
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100%
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1,841
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Bottom of Cyclical Bear Market
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Jan 1988
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0%
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2,015
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Went to 100% Cash and told listeners he was bearish.
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Feb 1989
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50%
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2,342
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Dow up 27% from the bottom and up 16.2% from Jan 1988 level
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Nov 1989
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75%
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2,650
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Feb 1990
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40%
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2,559
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Mar 1990
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50%
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2,635
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April 1990
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65%
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2,687
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May 1990
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75%
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2,656
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July 1990
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85%
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2,840
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July 18, 1990
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85%
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3,016
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Bull Market Peak. Up 50% since Jan 1988
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Oct 12, 1990
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85%
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2,398
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Gulf War Bottom, down 20.5% since peak
Note: Market is back to where it was in Feb 1989 when Brinker went form 0% to 50%.
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Dec 1990
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95%
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2,565
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Jan 1991
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100%
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2,550
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Fully Invested
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Date
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Allocation to Equities
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DJIA
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S&P
500
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QQQQ
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Notes
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Jan 1991
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100%
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2,550
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Fully Invested
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| Bob Brinker made his radio fame by correctly staying fully invested for
the next nine years while riding out a short bear market in 1998 and
deriding "the bad news bears."
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Jan 2000
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40%
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11,122
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Brilliantly,
lowered Allocation withing 5.2% of S&P500 top. Money placed in cash
reserves for "counter trend rallies in an expected 8 to 20 year secular
bear market."
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Aug 7, 2000
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35%
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10,688
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65% in Cash Reserves.
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Oct 16, 2000
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$83
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Told Subscribers via mailed bulletin to put 20% to 50% of "cash reserves" into QQQ for a counter trend rally. Details here
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Nov 2000
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35%
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Newsletter said to put money into QQQQ but model portfolios did not reflect this advice, a clever hedge for his record.
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Jan 8, 2001
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35%
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62.44
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Again
suggested putting 20% to 50% of cash reserves in to QQQ.
Reiterated this advice in his February through May 2000 Newsletters. Details here
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June 8, 2001
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$47.35
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Placed QQQ on "Hold for Future Recovery"
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Sept 21, 2001
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35%
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7,927
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DJIA hit 7926.93 intraday
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Oct 02, 2001
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35%
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8,951
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1,051
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28.82
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Official
recommendation is 35% but from lack of rebalancing and losses in the
35% he "officially" kept in the market, his Model Portfolio #1 in only
21% in equities.
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October 8, 2001 Marketimer: "We do not anticipate a long-term
negative effect on the investment markets as a direct result of the
tragic events of September 11. ... the Wilshire 2000 index of all US
stocks was already down 30% from its March, 2000 record high on
September 10 prior to the terrorist attacks.... We also recommend
subscribers with a position in the NASDAQ100 (QQQ=31.86) shares hold for
recovery within our earlier percentage guidelines (20 to 50% of cash
reserves)."
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Date
| Allocation to Equities
| DJIA
| S&P
500
| QQQQ
| Notes
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Mar 12, 2002
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35%
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10,586
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DJIA up 28.5% from 9/23/01
So much for playing counter trend rallies
Model Portfolio #1 was 21% in equities (not counting QQQ losses)
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Oct 9, 2002
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35%
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7,286
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777
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$20.06
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Official Bear Market Low and start of new cyclical bull market
Model Portfolio #1 was 19% in equities (not counting QQQ losses)
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Mar 11, 2003
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100%
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7,524
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801
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$23.80
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Buy Bulletin Issued on Web Site before open based on March 10th close. No guidance given for existing QQQ positions.
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Mar 15, 2003
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100%
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Announces 100% to weekend audience
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Mar 17, 2003
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100%
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8,142
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863
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$26.60
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SPY=86.78
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Apr 5, 2003
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100%
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8,070
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858
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$25.45
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Recommends new equity purchases below S&P 810 with dollar cost averaging otherwise.
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April
5, 2003: Marketimer: "In our view, the first
cyclical bear market has established the vicinity of a major bottom,
and that bottom area is essentially within the 789 to 810 range for the
Standard and Poor's 500 Index. We regard the market as attractive for
purchase anytime prices are trading within or below that price range."
and
"Due
to the significant stock market rebound that began a few days after our
March 11 buy signal, we recommend that subscribers who did not take
advantage of the price weakness at that time take a disciplined
approach to new purchases. For example, a gradual dollar-cost-average
strategy allows for investment into the market during periods of stock
market weakness..."
(S&P500 = 858.47, QQQQ=$25.45 & DJIA = 8069.86) |
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Date
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Allocation to Equities
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DJIA
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S&P
500
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QQQQ
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Notes
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May 2003
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100%
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8,481
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917
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Says DCA on market weakness below S&P500 810
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| May
6, 2003 Marketimer: "In order to maximize upside potential, we
recommend against chasing rallies in order to invest new money. . (The
market rallied straight up without a bear to set a new S&P 500
record in June 2007!) In the event another test of the area of the bear
market lows occurs below the 810 price level for the Standard and
Poor's 500 index, we would regard such weakness as an additional buying
opportunity.
Alternatively, a gradual dollar-cost-averaging approach during periods
of stock market weakness allows for investment into the market, keeping
in mind the market may well remain volatile in the months ahead."
(S&P500 = 916.92 & DJIA = 8480.09)
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June 2003
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100%
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| June 2003 Marketimer: ".....we believe that the U.S. stock market
entered into a new secular bear market megatrend based on the March 24,
2000 Standard and Poor's 500 Index close of 1527.46. If past history is
any guide investors will have to wait a very long time before they see
that level materially exceeded. However a series of cyclical bear
markets and cyclical bull markets appears inevitable within the secular
bear market megatrend. ... We are not enthusiastic about
investing new money into the market during period of strength, although
a gradual dollar-cost-averaging approach is acceptable for those with a
tolerance for further stock market volatility." |
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June 2007
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100%
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June
2007 Marketimer: "In our view, the valuation based secular bear
market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for
the S&P500 index (1527.46). and following the January, 2000 closing
high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006 at
the bottom of the mid-term off-presidential election year correction."
and
"While secular market trends are interesting from an historical
standpoint, all Marketimer asset allocation decisions for our model
portfolios are based solely on signals generated by the Marketimer
stock market timing model." |
Date
| Allocation to Equities
| DJIA
| S&P
500
| QQQQ
| Notes
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Kirk Lindstrom's May 31, 2007 Update on
Bob Brinker's "5 Root Causes of a Bear Market"
Bullish!
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Steve Thompson's June 2007 Update on
Bob Brinker's Long Term Stock Market Timing Model
Bullish!
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October 2007
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100%
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13,895.63.
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1526.75
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51.41
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Dollar Cost Average. Lump sum mid 1400's
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Although we do
not believe further weakness into the mid-1400's range must occur, we
remain comfortable with rating the market attractive for purchase
should any such additionalweakness occur. Above that price range, we
prefer a dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market investing.
All Marketimer® model portfolios remain fully invested.
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Dec. 2007
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100%
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1481
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Dollar Cost Average. Lump sum mid 1400's |
“Marketimer subscribers have been able to
add to position on this short-term correction based on our
recommendation to view the stock market as attractive for purchase
on any weakness into the S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s range. Any minor
weakness below that level has been contained in the area of the August
15 correction bottom in the low-1400’s. Several excellent buying
opportunities occurred during the month of November." and
"We
continue to believe that a bear market (S&P500 Index decline in excess
of 20%) is not on the radar screen at this time.
We expect the bull market to continue at least well into 2008, and we
look for significant stock market gains, including new S&P 500
record highs."
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January 2008
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100%
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13,264.82
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1468.36 |
45.35
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Dollar Cost Average. Lump sum mid 1400's
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Pg 3: “In
summary, the
Marketimer stock market timing model indicates that conditions are
favorable for the market as we enter 2008. We expect the S&P Index
to achieve new record highs this year and to reach the 1600’s rang in
the process. We continue to rate the market attractive for purchase on
any weakness into the S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s range.
Above this range we prefer a dollar-cost-average approach for new
purchases. All Marketimer model portfolios remain fully invested
as we enter 2008."
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January 20, 2008: Marketimer Special Subscriber Message: S&P 500 Index: 1325.19
=>
We recommend a dollar-cost-average
approach for new stock market investing until a definitive bottom area
is established. This should take place as a process which starts with
the formation of a bottom area, followed by a short-term rally,
followed by testing of the bottom area on reduced selling pressure. We
are focusing our efforts on working to identify the area of a
meaningful market bottom. There are no changes to our model portfolios.
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March 2008
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100% Invested |
12,266.39
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1330.63
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42.95
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Dollar Cost Average. Lump sum low 1300's |
Marketimer Pg 1: "Based
on the model’s current readings, we expect the area of the correction
bottom established during recent weeks in the S&P500 Index low
1300’s to contain any further testing and probing that may occur."
May 31, 2008 Moneytalk " Bad News Bear Bashing" Brinker said "“So what we have here basically,
is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad
is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the
market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in
the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these
people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find
themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves
looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite.
We’ve had the market rising since mid-March. It’s rather significant
when you stop to think about it. If you go back to mid-March and you
take a look at the S&P 500 Index since mid-March, right now you
have a total return, including cash dividends of about 10
1/2%.....................So it’s fair for you to say to the Cassandras,
where is that recession, where are those millions of lost jobs, where
are the two quarters of negative real GDP growth? Where’s the bear market? …………The
answer is, they blew it! That is the answer, they blew it. They got
caught up in their own negativity and they pronounced that it was all
over, it was going to spiral downward and there was no end in sight –
and they got it completely backwards. Truly amazing to see, and sad to
see the people that are harmed by such unjustified negativity.”
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June 2008
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100% Invested
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12,638.32
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1400.38
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50.01
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Dollar Cost Average. Lump sum low 1300's
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June 3, 2008 Article "Bob Brinker's June Market Outook"
Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early June, editor
Bob Brinker wrote that his market timing model "remains in favorable
territory as we approach the start of the summer season. We continue to
expect stock prices to work higher and to achieve new historic highs in
the market indexes." Brinker's model portfolios are fully invested.
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July 3, 2008
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100% Invested |
11,350.01
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1280.00
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45.17
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Dollar Cost Average. No Lump Sum Buy Point. |
| July 10, 2008 |
100% Invested
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11,146.55 |
1,242.40 |
45.14 |
100% Invested re Barrons
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Aug. 5, 2008
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100% Invested |
11,378.02
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1,267.38
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45.46
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Dollar Cost Average. Lump sum below 1240
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Sept. 3, 2008
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100% Invested |
11,543.96
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1,282.83
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46.12
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Dollar Cost Average. Lump sum "low-to-mid 1200s"
(1234 to 1267)
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| Date |
|
DJIA
Charts |
S&P500
Charts |
QQQQ
Charts |
watch for articles at the
Bob Brinker Fan Club Blog
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9/16/08
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100% Invested |
11,059.02 |
1213.60
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42.41
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Dollar Cost Average. No Lump Sum Buy Point.
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1/6/09
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100% Invested |
9,034.69
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931.77
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29.74
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Dollar Cost Average.
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January 6, 2009 Marketimer "Our model portfolios are fully invested."
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1/15/09
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100% Invested |
Special Bulletin: Low to mid 800s "buying opportunity"
"We expect calendar year 2009 to be a significant positive year for the stock market."
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2/4/09
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100% Invested
|
8,001
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826
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29.06
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BUY "below th S&P500 Index mid-800's range"
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3/5/09
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100% Invested |
6,726
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696
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26.62
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No buy levels. Looking to identify a bottom
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4/3/09
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100% Invested |
7,609
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798
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30.32
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"benchmark low" is in. Buy on "weakness" Targets S&P500 for 1,000s to 1,100s in 12 to 18 months
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8/3/09
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100% Invested |
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1,003
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S&P500 closes above 1,000 four months later. S&P500 target now 1100 to 1200.
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