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Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History
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Date
Allocation to Equities
DJIA
Charts
S&P500
Charts
QQQ
Charts
Advice Summary
Aug 14, 1982
100%
777


Recommended being fully invested on local radio in NY.   Had been mildly bullish on NBR in April.  Recommended DCA prior to Aug 14th.
Aug 21, 1987
100%
2,710


Top of cyclical bull market
Oct 19, 1987
100%
1,841


Bottom of Cyclical Bear Market
Jan 1988
0%
2,015


Went to 100% Cash and told listeners he was bearish.
Feb 1989
50%
2,342


Dow up 27% from the bottom and up 16.2% from Jan 1988 level
Nov 1989
75%
2,650



Feb 1990
40%
2,559



Mar 1990
50%
2,635



April 1990
65%
2,687



May 1990
75%
2,656



July 1990
85%
2,840



July 18, 1990
85%
3,016


Bull Market Peak.  Up 50% since Jan 1988
Oct 12, 1990
85%
2,398


Gulf War Bottom, down 20.5% since peak
Note: Market is back to where it was in Feb 1989 when Brinker went form 0% to 50%.
Dec 1990
95%
2,565



Jan 1991
100%
2,550


Fully Invested



Date
Allocation to Equities
DJIA
S&P
500
QQQQ
Notes
Jan 1991
100%
2,550


Fully Invested
Bob Brinker made his radio fame by correctly staying fully invested for the next nine years while riding out a short bear market in 1998 and deriding "the bad news bears."
Jan 2000
40%
11,122


Brilliantly, lowered Allocation withing 5.2% of S&P500 top. Money placed in cash reserves for "counter trend rallies in an expected 8 to 20 year secular bear market."
Aug 7, 2000
35%
10,688


65%  in Cash Reserves. 
Oct 16, 2000



$83
Told Subscribers via mailed bulletin to put 20% to 50% of "cash reserves" into QQQ for a counter trend rally.  Details here
Nov 2000
35%



Newsletter said to put money into QQQQ but model portfolios did not reflect this advice, a clever hedge for his record.
Jan 8, 2001
35%


62.44
Again suggested putting 20% to 50% of cash reserves in to QQQ.  Reiterated this advice in his February through May 2000 Newsletters.   Details here
June 8, 2001



$47.35
Placed QQQ on "Hold for Future Recovery"
Sept 21, 2001
35%
7,927


DJIA hit 7926.93 intraday
Oct 02, 2001
35%
8,951 1,051 28.82 Official recommendation is 35% but from lack of rebalancing and losses in the 35% he "officially" kept in the market, his Model Portfolio #1 in only 21% in equities.

October 8, 2001 Marketimer:  "We do not anticipate a long-term negative effect on the investment markets as a direct result of the tragic events of September 11. ... the Wilshire 2000 index of all US stocks was already down 30% from its March, 2000 record high on September 10 prior to the terrorist attacks.... We also recommend subscribers with a position in the NASDAQ100 (QQQ=31.86) shares hold for recovery within our earlier percentage guidelines (20 to 50% of cash reserves)."

On Oct 8, 2001: S&P500 = 1,062.44, DJIA = 9,067.94 & QQQ=31.86

Date
Allocation to Equities
DJIA
S&P
500
QQQQ
Notes
Mar 12, 2002
35%
10,586


DJIA up 28.5% from 9/23/01
So much for playing counter trend rallies
Model Portfolio #1 was 21% in equities (not counting QQQ losses)
Oct 9, 2002
35%
7,286
777
$20.06
Official Bear Market Low and start of new cyclical bull market
Model Portfolio #1 was 19% in equities (not counting QQQ losses)
Mar 11, 2003
100%
7,524
801
$23.80
Buy Bulletin Issued on Web Site before open based on March 10th close.  No guidance given for existing QQQ positions.
Mar 15, 2003
100%



Announces 100% to weekend audience
Mar 17, 2003
100%
8,142
863
$26.60
SPY=86.78
Apr 5, 2003
100%
8,070
858
$25.45
Recommends new equity purchases below S&P 810 with dollar cost averaging otherwise.
April 5, 2003: Marketimer: "In our view, the first cyclical bear market has established the vicinity of a major bottom, and that bottom area is essentially within the 789 to 810 range for the Standard and Poor's 500 Index. We regard the market as attractive for purchase anytime prices are trading within or below that price range."
and
 "Due to the significant stock market rebound that began a few days after our March 11 buy signal, we recommend that subscribers who did not take advantage of the price weakness at that time take a disciplined approach to new purchases. For example, a gradual dollar-cost-average strategy allows for investment into the market during periods of stock market weakness..."    (S&P500 = 858.47, QQQQ=$25.45 & DJIA = 8069.86)


Date
Allocation to Equities
DJIA
S&P
500
QQQQ
Notes
May 2003
100%
8,481
917

Says DCA on market weakness below S&P500 810
May 6, 2003 Marketimer: "In order to maximize upside potential, we recommend against chasing rallies in order to invest new money. . (The market rallied straight up without a bear to set a new S&P 500 record in June 2007!) In the event another test of the area of the bear market lows occurs below the 810 price level for the Standard and Poor's 500 index, we would regard such weakness as an additional buying opportunity. Alternatively, a gradual dollar-cost-averaging approach during periods of stock market weakness allows for investment into the market, keeping in mind the market may well remain volatile in the months ahead." (S&P500 = 916.92 & DJIA = 8480.09)
June 2003
100%




June 2003 Marketimer: ".....we believe that the U.S. stock market entered into a new secular bear market megatrend based on the March 24, 2000 Standard and Poor's 500 Index close of 1527.46. If past history is any guide investors will have to wait a very long time before they see that level materially exceeded. However a series of cyclical bear markets and cyclical bull markets appears inevitable within the secular bear market megatrend. ... We are not enthusiastic about investing new money into the market during period of strength, although a gradual dollar-cost-averaging approach is acceptable for those with a tolerance for further stock market volatility."


















June 2007
100%




June 2007 Marketimer: "In our view, the valuation based secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P500 index (1527.46). and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006 at the bottom of the mid-term off-presidential election year correction."
and
"While secular market trends are interesting from an historical standpoint, all Marketimer asset allocation decisions for our model portfolios are based solely on signals generated by the Marketimer stock market timing model."
Date
Allocation to Equities
DJIA
S&P
500
QQQQ
Notes
Kirk Lindstrom's May 31, 2007 Update on
Bob Brinker's "5 Root Causes of a Bear Market"

Bullish!
Steve Thompson's June 2007 Update on
Bob Brinker's Long Term Stock Market Timing Model

Bullish!
October 2007
100%
13,895.63.
1526.75
51.41
Dollar Cost Average.  Lump sum mid 1400's
Although we do not believe further weakness into the mid-1400's range must occur, we remain comfortable with rating the market attractive for purchase should any such additionalweakness occur. Above that price range, we prefer a dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market investing. All Marketimer® model portfolios remain fully invested.

Dec. 2007
100%

1481

Dollar Cost Average.  Lump sum mid 1400's
“Marketimer subscribers have been able to add to position on this short-term correction based on our recommendation to view the stock market as attractive for  purchase on any weakness into the S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s range. Any minor weakness below that level has been contained in the area of the August 15 correction bottom in the low-1400’s. Several excellent buying opportunities occurred during the month of November."  and

"We continue to believe that a bear market (S&P500 Index decline in excess of  20%) is not on the radar screen at this  time. We expect the bull market to continue at least well into 2008, and we look for significant stock market gains, including new S&P 500 record highs."


January 2008
100%
13,264.82
1468.36 45.35
Dollar Cost Average.  Lump sum mid 1400's
Pg 3:   “In  summary, the Marketimer stock market timing model indicates that conditions are favorable for the market as we enter 2008. We expect the S&P Index to achieve new record highs this year and to reach the 1600’s rang in the process. We continue to rate the market attractive for purchase on any weakness into the S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s range.   Above this range we prefer a dollar-cost-average approach for new purchases.  All Marketimer model portfolios remain fully invested as we enter 2008."

January 20, 2008:  Marketimer Special Subscriber Message: S&P 500 Index: 1325.19
=>  We recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market investing until a definitive bottom area is established. This should take place as a process which starts with the formation of a bottom area, followed by a short-term rally, followed by testing of the bottom area on reduced selling pressure. We are focusing our efforts on working to identify the area of a meaningful market bottom. There are no changes to our model portfolios.

March 2008
100% Invested 12,266.39
1330.63
42.95
Dollar Cost Average.  Lump sum low 1300's
Marketimer Pg 1: "Based on the model’s current readings, we expect the area of the correction bottom established during recent weeks in the S&P500 Index low 1300’s to contain any further testing and probing that may occur."

May 31, 2008 Moneytalk "Bad News Bear Bashing" Brinker said  "“So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite.

We’ve had the market rising since mid-March. It’s rather significant when you stop to think about it. If you go back to mid-March and you take a look at the S&P 500 Index since mid-March, right now you have a total return, including cash dividends of about 10 1/2%.....................So it’s fair for you to say to the Cassandras, where is that recession, where are those millions of lost jobs, where are the two quarters of negative real GDP growth? Where’s the bear market? …………The answer is, they blew it! That is the answer, they blew it. They got caught up in their own negativity and they pronounced that it was all over, it was going to spiral downward and there was no end in sight – and they got it completely backwards. Truly amazing to see, and sad to see the people that are harmed by such unjustified negativity.”

June 2008
100% Invested
12,638.32
1400.38
50.01
Dollar Cost Average.  Lump sum low 1300's
June 3, 2008 Article "Bob Brinker's June Market Outook"
Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early June, editor Bob Brinker wrote that his market timing model "remains in favorable territory as we approach the start of the summer season. We continue to expect stock prices to work higher and to achieve new historic highs in the market indexes." Brinker's model portfolios are fully invested.

July 3, 2008
100% Invested 11,350.01
1280.00
45.17
Dollar Cost Average.  No Lump Sum Buy Point.
July 10, 2008 100% Invested
11,146.55 1,242.40 45.14 100% Invested  re Barrons
Aug. 5, 2008
100% Invested 11,378.02
1,267.38
45.46
Dollar Cost Average.  Lump sum below 1240
Sept. 3, 2008
100% Invested 11,543.96
1,282.83
46.12
Dollar Cost Average.  Lump sum "low-to-mid 1200s"
(1234 to 1267)

fficial Bear Market By Bob Brinker's
                          Definition

Click for articles:

Date
DJIA
Charts
S&P500
Charts
QQQQ
Charts
 watch for articles at the
Bob Brinker Fan Club Blog
9/16/08
100% Invested 11,059.02 1213.60 42.41
Dollar Cost Average.  No Lump Sum Buy Point.
1/6/09
100% Invested 9,034.69
931.77
29.74
Dollar Cost Average.

January 6, 2009 Marketimer "Our model portfolios are fully invested."


DJIA
Charts
S&P500
Charts
QQQ
Charts

1/15/09
100% Invested Special Bulletin:  Low to mid 800s "buying opportunity"
"We expect calendar year 2009 to be a significant positive year for the stock market."
2/4/09
100% Invested 8,001
826
29.06
BUY "below th S&P500 Index mid-800's range"
3/5/09
100% Invested 6,726
696
26.62
No buy levels.  Looking to identify a bottom
4/3/09
100% Invested 7,609
798
30.32
"benchmark low" is in.  Buy on "weakness"   Targets S&P500 for 1,000s to 1,100s in 12 to 18 months
8/3/09
100% Invested
1,003

S&P500 closes above 1,000 four months later.  S&P500 target now 1100 to 1200.
03/04/10
100% Invested 10,325
1,104
44.76
S&P500 Target is 1200 to 1260 in 2010
09/03/10
100% Invested 10,015
1,049
43.46
Predicts 2% to 3% 2011 GDP Growth
S&P500 Target is 1275 to 1325 in 2011
03/03/11 100% Invested 12,226
1,327
57.77
Predicts 2.5-3.5% 2011 GDP Growth
S&P500 Target is low-to-mid 1400s in next 12 months
09/03/11 100% Invested 11,614
1,219
55.06
Predicts 1% to 2% 2011 GDP Growth
S&P500 Target is low-to-mid 1400s in 2012
03/03/12
100% Invested 12,952
1,366
64.41
Predicts 1.5-2.5% 2012 GDP Growth
S&P500 Target is mid-to-high 1400s in next 12 months
Marketimer, May 3, 2012: "For now, we continue to maintain a favorable stock market view. We expect the current period of short-term consolidation to be contained within the single-digit percentage range as measured from the April 2, 2012 S&P 500 closing high of 1419."  (90% of 1,419= 1,277.1) 
Date
Bob Brinker's
Asset Allocation
DJIA
Charts
S&P500
Charts
QQQ
Charts
Advice Summary
6/4/12
100% Invested 12,101
1,278
60.87
(1,419 - 1,278) / 1,41 9 x 100% = 9.94%
10/9/12
100% Invested
P1&P2 100% Equities.
P3=66% Equities
13,474 1,441 67.26 After Recommending QQQ at $86 in 2000, Brinker says:
Sell QQQ (67.26) / RYOCX (17.87)
buy VTSMX (35.84) or VTI (73.66)
See Effect of QQQ advice on reported results
10/19/12
100% Invested 13,344
1,433

Oct. 19, 2012 Moneytalk Show Summary
Bob said "dollar cost average on periods of weakness"
12/5/12
100% Invested 13,025
1,416
64.90
First line of newsletter reads:  "The Stock market is now in the thirteenth year of the secular bear megatrend that commenced in the first quarter of Year 2000.
12/16/12
100% Invested 13,135
1,414
64.69
S&P500 "potential" is "upper 1400s to lower-1500s"
1/4/13
100% Invested 13,104 1,426
66.63
The stock market was not able to experience a health-restoring correction in 2012... S&P500 "potential" is "upper 1400s to lower-1500s"
2/28/13
(MT dated 3/5/13)
100% Invested 14,054 1,515 67.10 "The S&P500 Index has the potential to trade in the mid-1500s range.... The absence of a health restoring correction in 2012 remains a concern"
June 5, 2013
100% Invested 14,961
1,609 71.82 "Based on our 2013 operating earnings estimate of $108 for the S&P 500 Index, the index has the potential to trade into the low-to-mid 1700s range going forward."
April 18, 2014
100% Invested 16,409
1,865
86.20
Estimates the S&P 500: low-to-mid 1900’s. Unenthusiastic about adding new money to the stock market at this time.  Dollar cost average on market pullbacks.  Full Summary
Date
Bob Brinker's
Asset Allocation
DJIA
Charts
S&P500
Charts
QQQ
Charts
Advice Summary
Feb. 10, 2016
100% Invested
1851.86

Buy Bulletin issued on web site with the S&P500 at 1851.86.  S&P500 opened at 1847.00 on 2/11/16.
Feb. 11, 2016
100% Invested 15,660.18 
1,829.08
96.55
Issued a Buy Bulletin after the market closed on 2/10/16.
More at Market Timer Bob Brinker's Special Bulletin
Bob Brinker does not expect a 20% bear market in 2016.
Mar 27, 2016
100% Invested 17,515.73
2,035.94
107.26
Said on Moneytalk: Dollar cost average new money into market while Feb. 11 level was a lump-sum buy







Note:  P1 and P2 are for Brinker's "Aggressive growth" and "long-term growth" while P3 is his "balanced" portfolio that is typically 50% equities and 50% fixed income.   I think I offer better portfolios in my newsletter where I don't take so much risk with my balanced portfolio and I offer REITs as an investment class Brinker has never recommended.   


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