Date
|
Allocation to Equities
|
DJIA
|
S&P
500
|
QQQQ
|
Notes
|
Jan 1991
|
100%
|
2,550
|
|
|
Fully Invested
|
| Bob Brinker
made his radio fame by correctly staying fully
invested for the next nine years while riding out a
short bear market in 1998 and deriding "the bad news
bears." |
Jan 2000
|
40%
|
11,122
|
|
|
Brilliantly, lowered Allocation withing
5.2% of S&P500 top. Money placed in cash
reserves for "counter trend rallies in an expected 8
to 20 year secular bear market."
|
Aug 7, 2000
|
35%
|
10,688
|
|
|
65% in Cash Reserves.
|
Oct 16, 2000
|
|
|
|
$83
|
Told Subscribers via mailed bulletin to put
20% to 50% of "cash reserves" into QQQ for a counter
trend rally. Details here
|
Nov 2000
|
35%
|
|
|
|
Newsletter said to put money into QQQQ but
model portfolios did not reflect this advice, a
clever hedge for his record.
|
Jan 8, 2001
|
35%
|
|
|
62.44
|
Again suggested putting 20% to 50% of cash
reserves in to QQQ. Reiterated this advice in
his February through May 2000 Newsletters.
Details here
|
June 8, 2001
|
|
|
|
$47.35
|
Placed QQQ on "Hold for Future Recovery"
|
Sept 21, 2001
|
35%
|
7,927
|
|
|
DJIA hit 7926.93 intraday
|
Oct 02, 2001
|
35%
|
8,951
|
1,051
|
28.82
|
Official recommendation is 35% but from
lack of rebalancing and losses in the 35% he
"officially" kept in the market, his Model Portfolio
#1 in only 21% in equities.
|
October 8, 2001 Marketimer: "We do not
anticipate a long-term negative effect on the
investment markets as a direct result of the tragic
events of September 11. ... the Wilshire 2000 index
of all US stocks was already down 30% from its
March, 2000 record high on September 10 prior to the
terrorist attacks.... We also recommend subscribers
with a position in the NASDAQ100 (QQQ=31.86)
shares hold for recovery within our earlier
percentage guidelines (20 to 50% of cash reserves)."
|
Date
|
Allocation to Equities
|
DJIA
|
S&P
500
|
QQQQ
|
Notes
|
Mar 12, 2002
|
35%
|
10,586
|
|
|
DJIA up 28.5% from 9/23/01
So much for playing counter trend rallies
Model Portfolio #1 was 21% in equities (not counting
QQQ
losses)
|
Oct 9, 2002
|
35%
|
7,286
|
777
|
$20.06
|
Official Bear Market Low and start of new
cyclical bull market
Model Portfolio #1 was 19% in equities (not counting
QQQ
losses)
|
Mar 11, 2003
|
100%
|
7,524
|
801
|
$23.80
|
Buy Bulletin Issued on Web Site before open
based on March 10th close. No guidance given
for existing QQQ positions.
|
Mar 15, 2003
|
100%
|
|
|
|
Announces 100% to weekend audience
|
Mar 17, 2003
|
100%
|
8,142
|
863
|
$26.60
|
SPY=86.78
|
Apr 5, 2003
|
100%
|
8,070
|
858
|
$25.45
|
Recommends new equity purchases below
S&P 810 with dollar cost averaging otherwise.
|
April 5, 2003: Marketimer: "In our view, the
first cyclical bear market has established the
vicinity of a major bottom, and that bottom area is
essentially within the 789 to 810 range for the
Standard and Poor's 500 Index. We regard the market
as attractive for purchase anytime prices are
trading within or below that price range."
and
"Due to the significant stock market rebound
that began a few days after our March 11 buy signal,
we recommend that subscribers who did not take
advantage of the price weakness at that time take a
disciplined approach to new purchases. For example,
a gradual dollar-cost-average strategy allows for
investment into the market during periods of stock
market weakness..." (S&P500 =
858.47, QQQQ=$25.45 & DJIA = 8069.86) |
|
Date
|
Allocation to Equities
|
DJIA
|
S&P
500
|
QQQQ
|
Notes
|
May 2003
|
100%
|
8,481
|
917
|
|
Says DCA on market weakness below
S&P500 810
|
| May 6, 2003
Marketimer: "In order to maximize upside potential,
we recommend against chasing rallies in order to
invest new money. . (The market rallied straight up
without a bear to set a new S&P 500 record in
June 2007!) In the event another test of the area of
the bear market lows occurs below the 810 price
level for the Standard and Poor's 500 index, we
would regard such weakness as an additional buying
opportunity. Alternatively, a gradual
dollar-cost-averaging approach during periods of
stock market weakness allows for investment into the
market, keeping in mind the market may well remain
volatile in the months ahead." (S&P500 = 916.92
& DJIA = 8480.09) |
June 2003
|
100%
|
|
|
|
|
| June 2003
Marketimer: ".....we believe that the U.S. stock
market entered into a new secular bear market
megatrend based on the March 24, 2000 Standard and
Poor's 500 Index close of 1527.46. If past history
is any guide investors will have to wait a very long
time before they see that level materially exceeded.
However a series of cyclical bear markets and
cyclical bull markets appears inevitable within the
secular bear market megatrend. ... We are not
enthusiastic about investing new money into the
market during period of strength, although a gradual
dollar-cost-averaging approach is acceptable for
those with a tolerance for further stock market
volatility." |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
June 2007
|
100%
|
|
|
|
|
June 2007 Marketimer: "In
our view, the valuation based secular bear market
that was established following the March, 2000
closing high for the S&P500 index (1527.46). and
following the January, 2000 closing high for the
DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13,
2006 at the bottom of the mid-term off-presidential
election year correction."
and
"While secular market trends are interesting from an
historical standpoint, all Marketimer asset
allocation decisions for our model portfolios are
based solely on signals generated by the Marketimer
stock market timing model." |
Date
|
Allocation to Equities
|
DJIA
|
S&P
500
|
QQQQ
|
Notes
|
Kirk Lindstrom's May
31,
2007 Update on
Bob Brinker's "5 Root Causes of a Bear Market"
Bullish!
|
Steve Thompson's June
2007
Update on
Bob Brinker's Long Term Stock Market Timing Model
Bullish!
|
October 2007
|
100%
|
13,895.63.
|
1526.75
|
51.41
|
Dollar
Cost
Average. Lump sum mid 1400's |
Although we do not believe further weakness
into the mid-1400's range must occur, we remain
comfortable with rating the market attractive for
purchase should any such additionalweakness occur.
Above that price range, we prefer a
dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market
investing. All Marketimer® model portfolios
remain fully invested.
|
Dec.
2007
|
100%
|
|
1481
|
|
Dollar
Cost
Average. Lump sum mid 1400's |
“Marketimer subscribers have been able to add
to position on this short-term correction based on
our recommendation to view the stock market as
attractive for purchase on any weakness into
the S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s range. Any minor
weakness below that level has been contained in the
area of the August 15 correction bottom in the
low-1400’s. Several excellent buying opportunities
occurred during the month of November." and
"We continue to believe that a bear market
(S&P500 Index decline in excess of 20%) is
not on the radar screen at this time. We
expect the bull market to continue at least well
into 2008, and we look for significant stock market
gains, including new S&P 500 record highs."
|
January 2008
|
100%
|
13,264.82
|
1468.36 |
45.35
|
Dollar
Cost
Average. Lump sum mid 1400's
|
Pg 3: “In summary, the
Marketimer stock market timing model indicates that
conditions are favorable for the market as we enter
2008. We expect the S&P Index to achieve new
record highs this year and to reach the 1600’s rang
in the process. We continue to rate the market
attractive for purchase on any weakness into the
S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s range.
Above this range we prefer a dollar-cost-average
approach for new purchases. All Marketimer
model portfolios remain fully invested as we enter
2008."
|
January 20, 2008: Marketimer Special
Subscriber Message: S&P 500 Index: 1325.19
=> We
recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for new
stock market investing until a definitive bottom
area is established. This should take place as a
process which starts with the formation of a
bottom area, followed by a short-term rally,
followed by testing of the bottom area on reduced
selling pressure. We are focusing our efforts on
working to identify the area of a meaningful
market bottom. There are no changes to our model
portfolios.
|
March
2008
|
100%
Invested |
12,266.39
|
1330.63
|
42.95
|
Dollar
Cost
Average. Lump sum low 1300's |
Marketimer Pg 1: "Based on the model’s current
readings, we expect the area of the correction
bottom established during recent weeks in the
S&P500 Index low 1300’s to contain any further
testing and probing that may occur."
May 31, 2008
Moneytalk " Bad
News
Bear Bashing" Brinker said "“So what
we have here basically, is an example of false
prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad
is the damage done. Think of the people that are
looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and
they’ve been scared out of the market in the
first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing
and yet these people are out there, and these
people are not happy, I’m sure, to find
themselves out of a rising market since March.
To find themselves looking for ever lower prices
when in fact we’ve had the opposite.
We’ve had the market rising since mid-March.
It’s rather significant when you stop to think
about it. If you go back to mid-March and you
take a look at the S&P 500 Index since
mid-March, right now you have a total return,
including cash dividends of about 10
1/2%.....................So it’s fair for you to
say to the Cassandras, where is that recession,
where are those millions of lost jobs, where are
the two quarters of negative real GDP growth?
Where’s the bear market? …………The answer is, they
blew it! That is the answer, they blew it. They
got caught up in their own negativity and they
pronounced that it was all over, it was going to
spiral downward and there was no end in sight –
and they got it completely backwards. Truly
amazing to see, and sad to see the people that
are harmed by such unjustified negativity.”
|
June
2008
|
100%
Invested
|
12,638.32
|
1400.38
|
50.01
|
Dollar
Cost
Average. Lump sum low 1300's
|
June 3, 2008 Article "Bob
Brinker's
June Market Outook"
Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most
recent issue, which was published in early June,
editor Bob Brinker wrote that his market timing
model "remains in favorable territory as we approach
the start of the summer season. We continue to
expect stock prices to work higher and to achieve
new historic highs in the market indexes." Brinker's
model portfolios are fully invested.
|
July 3, 2008
|
100% Invested |
11,350.01
|
1280.00
|
45.17
|
Dollar Cost Average. No Lump Sum Buy
Point. |
| July 10, 2008 |
100% Invested
|
11,146.55 |
1,242.40 |
45.14 |
100% Invested re Barrons
|
Aug. 5, 2008
|
100% Invested |
11,378.02
|
1,267.38
|
45.46
|
Dollar Cost Average. Lump sum below
1240
|
Sept. 3, 2008
|
100% Invested |
11,543.96
|
1,282.83
|
46.12
|
Dollar Cost Average. Lump sum
"low-to-mid 1200s"
(1234 to 1267)
|
|
| Date |
|
DJIA
Charts |
S&P500
Charts |
QQQQ
Charts |
watch
for articles at the
Bob
Brinker Fan Club Blog |
9/16/08
|
100%
Invested
|
11,059.02 |
1213.60
|
42.41
|
Dollar
Cost
Average. No Lump Sum Buy Point.
|
1/6/09
|
100%
Invested |
9,034.69
|
931.77
|
29.74
|
Dollar
Cost
Average.
|
January 6, 2009 Marketimer "Our model portfolios are
fully invested."
|
|
|
DJIA
Charts |
S&P500
Charts |
QQQ
Charts |
|
1/15/09
|
100% Invested |
Special Bulletin: Low to mid
800s "buying opportunity"
"We expect calendar year 2009 to be a significant
positive year for the stock market."
|
2/4/09
|
100% Invested |
8,001
|
826
|
29.06
|
BUY "below th
S&P500 Index mid-800's range"
|
3/5/09
|
100% Invested |
6,726
|
696
|
26.62
|
No buy levels.
Looking to identify a bottom
|
4/3/09
|
100% Invested |
7,609
|
798
|
30.32
|
"benchmark low" is
in. Buy on "weakness" Targets
S&P500 for 1,000s to 1,100s in 12 to 18 months
|
8/3/09
|
100% Invested |
|
1,003
|
|
S&P500 closes
above 1,000 four months later. S&P500
target now 1100 to 1200.
|
03/04/10
|
100% Invested |
10,325
|
1,104
|
44.76
|
S&P500 Target
is 1200 to 1260 in 2010 |
09/03/10
|
100% Invested |
10,015
|
1,049
|
43.46
|
Predicts 2% to 3%
2011 GDP Growth
S&P500 Target is 1275 to 1325 in 2011 |
| 03/03/11 |
100% Invested |
12,226
|
1,327
|
57.77
|
Predicts 2.5-3.5%
2011 GDP Growth
S&P500 Target is low-to-mid 1400s in next 12
months |
| 09/03/11 |
100% Invested |
11,614
|
1,219
|
55.06
|
Predicts 1% to 2%
2011 GDP Growth
S&P500 Target is low-to-mid 1400s in 2012 |
03/03/12
|
100% Invested |
12,952
|
1,366
|
64.41
|
Predicts 1.5-2.5%
2012 GDP Growth
S&P500 Target is mid-to-high 1400s in next 12
months
|
Marketimer,
May 3, 2012: "For now, we continue to
maintain a favorable stock market view. We expect
the current period of short-term consolidation to
be contained within the single-digit percentage
range as measured from the April 2, 2012 S&P
500 closing high of 1419."
(90% of 1,419= 1,277.1)
|
Date
|
Bob Brinker's
Asset Allocation
|
DJIA
Charts |
S&P500
Charts |
QQQ
Charts |
Advice Summary |
6/4/12
|
100% Invested |
12,101
|
1,278
|
60.87
|
(1,419 -
1,278) / 1,41 9 x
100% = 9.94%
|
10/9/12
|
100% Invested
P1&P2 100% Equities.
P3=66% Equities
|
13,474 |
1,441 |
67.26 |
After Recommending QQQ at $86 in 2000, Brinker says:
Sell QQQ (67.26) / RYOCX (17.87)
buy VTSMX (35.84) or VTI (73.66)
See Effect of QQQ advice on reported
results |
10/19/12
|
100% Invested |
13,344
|
1,433
|
|
Oct. 19, 2012 Moneytalk Show Summary
Bob said "dollar cost average on periods of weakness"
|
12/5/12
|
100% Invested |
13,025
|
1,416
|
64.90
|
First line of newsletter
reads: "The Stock market is now in the thirteenth year of the
secular bear megatrend that commenced in the first quarter of Year 2000.
|
12/16/12
|
100% Invested
|
13,135
|
1,414
|
64.69
|
S&P500 "potential" is "upper 1400s to lower-1500s"
|
1/4/13
|
100% Invested |
13,104
|
1,426
|
66.63
|
The stock market was not able to
experience a health-restoring correction in 2012... S&P500
"potential" is "upper 1400s to lower-1500s"
|
2/28/13
(MT dated 3/5/13)
|
100% Invested
|
14,054
|
1,515
|
67.10
|
"The S&P500 Index has the
potential to trade in the mid-1500s range.... The absence of a health
restoring correction in 2012 remains a concern"
|
June 5, 2013
|
100% Invested
|
14,961
|
1,609
|
71.82
|
"Based on our 2013 operating
earnings estimate of $108 for the S&P 500 Index, the index has the
potential to trade into the low-to-mid 1700s range going forward."
|
April 18, 2014
|
100% Invested
|
16,409
|
1,865
|
86.20
|
Estimates the S&P 500:
low-to-mid 1900’s. Unenthusiastic about adding new money to the stock
market at this time. Dollar cost average on market pullbacks. Full Summary
|
Date
| Bob Brinker's
Asset Allocation
| DJIA
Charts | S&P500
Charts | QQQ
Charts | Advice Summary | Feb. 10, 2016
| 100% Invested
|
| 1851.86
|
| Buy Bulletin issued on web site with the S&P500 at 1851.86. S&P500 opened at 1847.00 on 2/11/16. |
Feb. 11, 2016
|
100% Invested
|
15,660.18
|
1,829.08
|
96.55
|
Issued a Buy Bulletin after the market closed on 2/10/16.
More at Market Timer Bob Brinker's Special Bulletin
Bob Brinker does not expect a 20% bear market in 2016.
|
Mar 27, 2016
| 100% Invested
| 17,515.73
| 2,035.94
| 107.26
| Said on Moneytalk: Dollar cost average new money into market while Feb. 11 level was a lump-sum buy
| Nov. 4, 2016
| 100% Invested
| 18,142.42
| 2,126.15
| 112.53
| "... the potential for a more challenging stock market outlook deserves close monitoring going forward."
| Feb. 5, 2017
| 100% Invested
| 19,864.09
| 2,278.87
| 124.81
| "For
now, we recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market
investing, preferably during periods of market weakness."
| November 3, 2017
| 100% Invested
| 23,377.24
| 2,575.26
| 152.66
| "Current
valuations remain far below the year 2000 level... Subscribers looking
to add to holdings can do so on a dollar-cost average basis, especially
during short-term periods of market weakness."
|
January 4, 2018
|
100% Invested
|
24,719.22
|
2,673.61
|
160.31
|
"Marketimer economic outlook for
2018 does not anticipate a recession.... a bear market decline in excess
of 20% is low... all Marketimer model portfolios remain fully
invested."
|
March 5, 2018
| 100% Invested
| 25,029.20
| 2,713.83
| 167.83
| "we
are not forecasting a bear market decline in excess of 20%.... the
(S&P 500) index has the potential to trade into the 2900s range...
all Marketimer portfolios remain fully invested... dollar-cost-average
for new investing..."
|
April 7, 2018
|
100% Invested
|
23,932.76
|
2,604.47
|
156.63
|
No Bear market call & fully invested. Detailed Article at
Market Update & Bob Brinker's April Investment Advice
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
More articles at the Bob Brinker Fan Club Blog
|
Note: P1 and P2
are for Brinker's "Aggressive growth" and "long-term growth" while P3 is
his "balanced" portfolio that is typically 50% equities and 50% fixed
income. I think I offer better portfolios in my newsletter
where I don't take so much risk with my balanced portfolio and I offer
REITs as an investment class Brinker has never
recommended.
|
